You are here: Home / Archives for Psychology

NBA Draft and Effects on Playing Time

I recently came across a study on the NBA and effects on playing time. The study conducted by Berkeley professors Barry Staw and Ha Hoang, analyzed playing time in the 1980’s over a five year span following the NBA draft. Professor Staw analyzed factors including on court performance, trades, injuries and draft position. What did he find?

“…teams granted more playing time to their most highly DRAFTED players and retained them longer, even after controlling for players’ on court performance, injuries, trade status, and positions played.”

Where a player was selected in the draft was a “significant predictor” in minutes played over the entire five year span that was studied. In addition the draft position effect was “above and beyond” any effects on player’s performance, injury, or trade status. Put simply, players were given more minutes based on where they were drafted.

How significant was the effect on minutes played? Kwame Brown and Michael Jordan on Washington Wizards

Based on a 24 team league (average used in the study) being picked in the second round resulted in 552 fewer minutes in the following year. That is equivalent to sitting on the bench for 47 extra quarters, or almost 12 games!

One might argue that increased playing time makes sense in the season immediately following the draft, but draft order continued to influence playing time up to and including a player’s fifth year in the NBA. Not only did draft order effect playing time, but the higher a player was drafted the less likely he was to be traded and the longer his career lasted.

Pyschological influences

While the study focuses on escalation of commitment and sunk costs, the psychological phenomenon known as irrational escalation is in play as well.  Irrational escalation occurs when people justify increased investment, based on prior investment, despite new evidence showing that decision was probably wrong.  The NBA study illustrates this principle as players were given more playing time based on their draft order (and contract) even when their performance might not have justified such an action.

So what does this all mean?

We often hear management and coaches talking about playing their best five players, or looking at roster changes objectively, but based on this study that isn’t necessarily the case. Whether we realize it or not, management decisions in sports are subject to psychological pulls just like decisions in our own daily lives. Further research and education on the topic can help sports organizations overcome these type of decisions.

What do you think about draft status impacting playing time? Would you have guessed it influences minutes played even five years later? Does this surprise you?

Filed Under: Operations, Psychology Tagged With: ,

Information Sharing To Influence Sports Fans

In my last post, I talked about the effect of simplicity on sales conversions.  There are many simple changes, such as altering site design, to yield significant improvements.  With that in mind, I’d like to propose another simple idea, that is supported by one of my favorite books, in addition to many social websites:

PEOPLE are influenced by other PEOPLE.

It sounds simple. Think about it.  People are influenced by other people.  Yet that idea is often not utilized to its potential.  With than in mind, I want to look at how sports organizations can use this theory to further influence fans.

How often do fans know the actual number of tickets sold (or even available) at an event prior to considering a purchase?  Rarely.

How often do fans know the actual number of people signed up for the teams’ email newsletter?  Almost never.

Would it make a difference if fans did know?

FansAccording to years of research the answer is simple.  YES.  In addition, lessons can be learned from social sites today that are not only setting the tone for the new age of the Internet, but marketing and sales as well.  For example, WeFollow.com (a popular Twitter tool) greets visitors with a simple pop up encouraging them to sign up.  They also show a message that says (when I last view the site) “Now listing over 684,078 Twitter users.”

While that little bit of information might seem insignificant…its not.  Why does it work?  A non-customer goes to the site, is greeted by a simple welcome screen, and sees that over 650,000 people use the service.  Well if 650,000 people use the site it must be good, right?  That user likely became a customer, as Kevin Rose (the founder of Digg and WeFollow.com) can attest to as well.

If fans knew that 1,500 people had purchases tickets through the teams website that day, or that 87% of tickets had already been sold for a particular game, wouldn’t that influence them to act?  Yes, because fans are influenced by other fans.

Now there are a few caveats to this method.  First and foremost, the method should only be used when the relayed information is true.  If WeFollow.com doesn’t have 600,000+ users it would be inappropriate to market that.  Secondly, the strategy should only be used when it would help the organization.  For example, if WeFollow.com only had 7 users, it’s probably not a good idea to showcase that on their sign up page.   If the information works in your favor, as it could with attendance or email newsletters, it can certainly make a difference.

Filed Under: Psychology Tagged With: ,

Simplicity in Sports Business

Based on hours of research I’ve done from books (Yes!, Made To Stick, etc) to videos (Kevin Rose, etc) to websites (abtests.com, etc), a simple conclusion can be drawn: simple sells.  What is simple?  How does that translate to sports?

Let’s look at ticket sales and website design to further examine this idea.  One of the primary drivers of revenue for a sports team is ticket sales.  Therefore when looking at an organization’s website, one of the goals is to convert a website visitor into a customer (someone who purchased tickets).  That suggests the following idea:

Simple leads to ticket sales.

I randomly selected a team website from each of the four sports as a visual example to see how “simple” factors into the design.  Take a look at the sites (click to enlarge):

redwingsraysjazzjaguars

What is your first impression? Simple?  I don’t have any information on these sites conversion rates, but my guess is the sales conversions (assuming that is a goal of the site) are not as high as they could be.  What if a team site used a simple approach that is increasingly popular in the current web era (Google, Twitter, etc.)?

For example, Gyminee.com (creator of popular iPhone and website applications) started with this site that looks similar to those above, and ultimately ran an AB Test to settle on their current design.  The final results?  The simpler design yielded a 20%+ increase in conversions.  Granted, its only one company, but feel free to look at several others who have had success altering their websites to make them simpler and clearer.

What would a 20% increase mean to an organization?  Or even a 5% increase?  Organizations don’t necessarily have to hire new people or increase the number of cold calls to sell more tickets.  There are certainly other goals to a website (sponsors to please, stories to post) but simplifying the website design may yield some surprising results.

Filed Under: Psychology Tagged With: ,

Birth Month Effect On Baseball Performance, Part II

In our first post, we showed the percentage of players in Major League Baseball based on birth month.  As I showed, there is a much higher percentage of players born in August, largely due to the Little League Baseball cutoff date of July 31.

In order for players to reach the majors, they had to have been performing at a higher level through various levels of baseball.  But once they reach the major league level, is there any correlation between birth month and performance? Let’s take a look.

Batting

batting

Interestingly, the statistics show that, if anything, players born in JULY outperform those born in August.  While 2 HR and 5RBI isn’t huge, it still interesting to see that players born in July outperform those born in August.

Pitching

pitching

There is very little difference in pitching statistics relative to birth month.  Players born in August pitched more innings, and had a slightly lower ERA, but no extreme differences between people born in July and August.

Conclusion

Wile there was a huge difference in the percentage of players born in July (6.4%) compared to August (12.2%), the difference in performance was fairly small.  How could this be?

The theory is that by the time a player reaches the Major League, they are an expert, and thus in aggregate the statistics are very similar.  Any other thoughts?  There are more players born in August, yet their performance isn’t any better.  What other explanations can you think of?

Filed Under: Operations, Psychology Tagged With: , ,

Birth Month Effect On Baseball Players, Part I

The birth month phenomena is an interesting occurrence that is applicable throughout society.  While Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell implied the same was true for baseball, I wanted to take a closer look.  Looking at the birth month of every MLB player that has appeared in a game since 1965, the graph suggests that you’re most likely to become a MLB player if you are born in August.

MLB Players By Birth Month

Among US born players, 12.2% of MLB players have birthdays in August, while only 6.4% have birthdays in July. A discrepancy that big can’t just happen by accident can it?  Not likely.  The reasoning is that the Little League Baseball cutoff date for 55 years (up until 2006) was July 31.

So what does that mean?  A player, for example, born on August 1, 1996 would be playing in the same division as a kid born on July 31, 1997.  Given the cutoff date, the kid with a birthday on August 1 is a year older than the kid with a birthday on July 31 yet they are playing in the same division.  Thus, the player with the birthday in August likely has an advantage in size, strength and maturity.  Thus players with birthdays in August may be more likely to get picked for All Stars and more likely to get advanced practice time to become an even more successful player.

Interestingly, in 2006 Little League changed the cutoff date to April 31, so if you want your kid to have a leg up on the competition, a May birthday will be most beneficial.

So if players born in August are more likely to become MLB players, do they perform better at the Major League level?  Stay tuned for Part II in a few days.

Data Source: Sean Lahmans’ baseball1.com

Filed Under: Operations, Psychology Tagged With: , ,